On the long-term response of marine structures     

L.V.S. Sagrilo  A. NaessA.S. Doria 《Applied Ocean Research》2011,33(3):208-214

This paper addresses some important issues related to the estimation of long-term extreme responses of marine structures. Several convolution models to establish the long-term distribution of a marine structure response parameter are available in the literature. These methods are typically based either on all short-term peaks, all extreme short-term peaks or all short-term upcrossing rates. The main assumptions and simplifications of the five models most usually found in the literature are discussed in this paper. A linear single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) system along with a bi-lognormal probability model for significant wave heights and zero-crossing wave periods have been used for numerical tests. An improved approach to efficiently evaluate the long-term convolution integrals is also proposed in this paper. It is shown that a combination of the Inverse First Order Reliability Method (IFORM) and an Importance Sampling Monte Carlo Simulation (ISMCS) approach can be used to obtain a very good result for the exact solution of long-term integrals.  相似文献   

Effects of an exceptional drought on daily activity patterns, reproductive behaviour, and reproductive success of reintroduced Arabian oryx (Oryx leucoryx)     

K. Ismail  K. KamalM. Plath  T. Wronski 《Journal of Arid Environments》2011,75(2):125-131

Activity patterns, social behaviour, and reproductive success of Arabian oryx were monitored in a reintroduced population in Mahazat as-Sayd Protected Area, Saudi Arabia. During the first year of the study, precipitation was 38% lower than the long-term average, whereas rainfall in the following year resulted in precipitation that was 92.8% of the long-term average. These dramatically different rainfall conditions corresponded with distinct patterns in various environmental parameters (air and soil temperature, humidity, wind speed, solar radiation, air pressure). Daily activity patterns, the frequency of social behaviours, and foraging activity were significantly reduced during the drought period. The frequency of reproductive behaviour was significantly related to daytime, air temperature and radiation, with a pronounced reduction of reproductive activities during the drought. Monthly rates of conceptions were considerably lower during the drought. Our results substantiate the idea that extended dry periods affect the population development of Oryx, but also raise questions about habitat suitability and carrying capacity. Future management of Arabian oryx should consider extreme climatic events as factors influencing various aspects of the ecology and behaviour of this species. This aspect may become even more important in the face of climate change, including a future increase of extreme climatic events.  相似文献   

冬季北太平洋风暴轴纬向变化特征及其与我国极端低温频次的可能联系     

王超  孙照渤 《气象科学》2016,36(3):301-310

采用NCEP/NCAR和ERA40再分析资料,分析了垂直方向上冬季北太平洋风暴轴纬向结构的时空演变特征,揭示了北太平风暴轴纬向结构具有显著年际、年代际变化特征。冬季北太平洋风暴轴纬向结构主要呈现出全区一致、东西反相两种分布型("A"型和"B"型),细分为整体一致性强型("A+"型)、整体一致性弱型("A-"型)、东弱西强型("B+"型)和东强西弱型("B-"型)。研究表明:冬季北太平洋风暴轴的纬向结构与我国极端低温频次的关系密切,风暴轴呈"A+"("A-")型纬向结构时,我国整体区域极端低温频次偏少(多);风暴轴呈"B+"("B-")纬向结构时,我国全区极端低温频次偏多(少)。  相似文献   

新疆夏季降水异常与100hPa南亚高压月平均环流特征的相关分析     

刘惠云 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2001,24(3):9-11

利用1979-1995年6-8月逐月的100hPa平均高度场资料及相对应的降水资料，对新疆夏季降水异常月的南亚高压的环流特征进行了较为系统的分析，分别总结出了南疆和北疆降水偏多月及降水偏少月时南亚高压环流特征不同的8种类型。  相似文献   

冬季黑潮延伸体异常增暖对东亚夏季风影响的数值试验   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：3  

王晓丹  钟中  谭言科  杜楠 《热带气象学报》2011,27(4):569-576

利用NCAR CAM3全球大气环流模式数值试验，研究了冬季黑潮延伸体的海温异常增暖对东亚夏季风的影响。结果表明，冬季黑潮延伸体海温异常增暖将导致东亚夏季风增强北推。表征夏季风强度的EASMI（the East Asian Summer Monsoon Index）和LSTDI（the Land-Sea Thernal Difference Index）在夏季风爆发后都呈现了明显的增强趋势，且LSTDI对海温异常增暖的响应更为敏感。华北、南海和菲律宾以东的低空西南季风显著增强，副热带西风急流轴以北（南）西风加强（减弱）。日本群岛及周边海域和中国东部长江以南至秦岭一线的降水明显减少；华北、南海、东海、黄海和菲律宾以东的西太平洋上的降水增多。华北是东亚夏季风对黑潮延伸体的海温异常响应最敏感的区域。东亚地区近地面温度表现为一致的增温特征，而30～50 °N之间对流层的整体升温导致了海陆热力差异的加大，这是促使东亚夏季风增强的重要原因。中国及周边地区环流和降水异常分布和西北太平洋副热带高压增强北抬有关。  相似文献   

Truncation of the distribution of ground-motion residuals   总被引：4，自引：3，他引：1  

Fleur O. Strasser  Julian J. Bommer  Norman A. Abrahamson 《Journal of Seismology》2008,12(1):79-105

Recent studies to assess very long-term seismic hazard in the USA and in Europe have highlighted the importance of the upper tail of the ground-motion distribution at the very low annual frequencies of exceedance required by these projects. In particular, the use of an unbounded lognormal distribution to represent the aleatory variability of ground motions leads to very high and potentially unphysical estimates of the expected level of shaking. Current practice in seismic hazard analysis consists of truncating the ground-motion distribution at a fixed number (ε _max) of standard deviations (σ). However, there is a general lack of consensus regarding the truncation level to adopt. This paper investigates whether a physical basis for choosing ε _max can be found, by examining records with large positive residuals from the dataset used to derive one of the ground-motion models of the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) project. In particular, interpretations of the selected records in terms of causative physical mechanisms are reviewed. This leads to the conclusion that even in well-documented cases, it is not possible to establish a robust correlation between specific physical mechanisms and large values of the residuals, and thus obtain direct physical constraints on ε _max. Alternative approaches based on absolute levels of ground motion and numerical simulations are discussed. However, the choice of ε _max is likely to remain a matter of judgment for the foreseeable future, in view of the large epistemic uncertainties associated with these alternatives. Additional issues arise from the coupling between ε _max and σ, which causes the truncation level in terms of absolute ground motion to be dependent on the predictive equation used. Furthermore, the absolute truncation level implied by ε _max will also be affected if σ is reduced significantly. These factors contribute to rendering a truncation scheme based on a single ε _max value impractical.  相似文献   

莺歌海盆地异常裂后沉降的动力学机制   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

崔涛  解习农  任建业  张成 《地球科学》2008,33(3):349-356

为了理解莺歌海盆地形成与演化的动力过程, 用回剥法和应变速率反演方法对该区的钻井和地层剖面资料进行了研究.研究结果表明莺歌海盆地观测得到的裂后沉降和模拟预测的理论裂后沉降结果存在较大差异, 其中在西北部为300~500 m, 中部和东南部为900~1200 m, 其异常裂后沉降明显呈现向东南和向海方向递大的趋势.地幔对流模型预测的结果表明, 20 Ma以来南海北部边缘的动力地貌沉降量为300 m, 因此, 莺歌海盆地裂后异常沉降在300 m左右的地区可以用动力地貌沉降机理来解释, 但是盆地中部和东南部的巨厚的异常沉降远大于动力地貌沉降量, 它是自晚中新世以来盆缘断层的右旋走滑作用、裂后热回沉和动力地貌沉降共同作用的结果.   相似文献   

苏鲁豫皖地区地磁异常场时空近期动态演化特征     

张毅  陈宇卫  顾春雷  王雷  徐如刚 《华南地震》2009,29(2):42-48

以苏鲁豫皖地区2005年至2008年四期地磁矢量场的观测数据为基础,分别建立了该区域的F、D、I三个独立分量四期的地磁异常场模型。通过对郯庐断裂带中段地磁异常场时空动态演化特征分析,发现该区域的F、D、I分量地磁异常场形态在2005年11月九江地震前后出现了较大程度的变化,甚至出现了地磁正负异常场的反转,从2007年春季至2008年春季,该区域地磁异常场分布形态基本保持稳定。  相似文献   

中国大陆边缘构造属性与超巨量金属工业堆积   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

裴荣富  李进文  梅燕雄  王永磊  李莉  王浩琳 《高校地质学报》2007,13(2):137-147

研究了大陆边缘的形成与演化,以中国大陆已存在的3条陆壳对接消减带为界,划分了5个大陆边缘构造带、13个次一级的边缘构造区及其内部的58个时空配置结构,并据区内现有金属矿产地计算了其发现几率。依据大陆边缘的形成、演化及其动力学特征,将中国大陆边缘划分为离散型、汇聚型、对接碰撞型和转换型4类,并总结了其成矿专属。大陆边缘虽然有利成矿,但是超巨量金属工业堆积应取决于其成矿有利因素是否达到最佳耦合。提出了最佳耦合应是异常地质事件激发正常成矿作用发生“引潮共振”①的结果。  相似文献   

2008年北京奥运会沈阳极端天气事件气候背景分析   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

卢娟  唐亚平  孙丽  李岚  孙龙彧 《气象与环境学报》2006,22(5):10-13

利用1951～2005年沈阳7月下旬至9月上旬的日最高气温、降水量、风和天气现象等观测资料,分别以旬为单位统计了高温、暴雨、大风、大雾和雷暴等对体育竞赛影响较大的极端天气气候事件发生的概率及分布特点,以期为2008年北京奥运会足球沈阳分赛场的足球小组赛提供气候背景服务信息。结果表明:7月下旬至9月上旬,沈阳易出现高温、暴雨、大风和雷暴等不利天气,对举办足球比赛等赛事将会产生不利影响;相对而言,8月中旬至9月上旬期间,这些不利天气发生的概率较小,对举办足球比赛等赛事较为有利。  相似文献